30-Year Fixed National Average Rates, as of November 16*

 

Conventional

7.36%

 

FHA

6.71%

VA

6.73%

Jumbo

7.75%

 

 

 

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun Forecasts a 2024 Uptick

At the Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum at NAR NXT in Anaheim, California, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun shared insights and predictions for the real estate market.

Yun forecasts a moderate uptick in 2024 after significant national sales declines of 17% in 2022 and a predicted decline of 18% in 2023. Should the spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and 30-year mortgage rates normalize, Yun anticipates a potential decrease in mortgage rates to below 7% by the spring homebuying season.

Yun projects a 13% increase in existing-home sales and a 19% rise in new-home sales for the upcoming period.

In a departure from its steady rate increases since 2021, the Federal Reserve opted to maintain the federal funds rate at its November meeting. Despite challenges faced by real estate professionals in recent years, Yun pointed out the optimism among homeowners due to ongoing upward pressure on home prices resulting from a lack of inventory.

He referenced a Federal Reserve survey indicating a 34% increase in the median net worth of homeowners since 2019, reaching $396,200, compared to a 30% increase to $10,400 for renters.

"There will be years when home prices don't grow or decline," Yun said. "But as a long-term homeowner, it is almost assured you will come out ahead in America."1

 

Should You Go Niche with Listings?

If winter listings are thin, it may be an ideal time to implement a new strategy: identifying and serving the niche markets that are active in your area. If one or more of the following options appeals to you, consider signing up for a CE or certification class, or trailing an agent willing to share specialized knowledge with you.

 

1. Vacation Rental InvestorsWhile some buyers are waiting for lower rates, real estate investors are buying up vacation rentals. These are still proving to be lucrative, especially those offered as short-term rentals. When you demonstrate expertise with market regulations, permits, demand, and fees, you can become the agent that investors call for accurate market updates and listings.

2. Military MoversSince over 400,000 members of our armed forces receive Permanent Change of Station (PCS) orders every year, this can be an ideal niche, especially if you're near a military base. One major plus to assisting military moves is that most will be using their Veterans Affair (VA) benefits, including mortgages that require little or no down payment. Learning military jargon is mandatory. You can also become a certified MRP, or military relocation professional.

3. Empty Nesters2022's biggest share of homebuyers was 55 or better, and a "silver tsunami" of home transactions has already been predicted for 2024 and 2025. While many downsizers move closer to family members, others plan to shop for a condo or townhome with minimal upkeep while others are looking forward to a retirement community with golf and other sports amenities. In addition to contacting long-term homeowners in family neighborhoods, consider earning a Seniors Real Estate Specialist (SRES) designation.2

Facts To Share (and NOT Share) With FSBO Sellers

Even though the overall numbers of For Sale by Owner (FSBO) sellers have dropped, chances are you're still spotting them. While many come to their senses quickly and begin working with a local agent, a few will balk. Here are some facts and numbers to mention...and one you may want to keep a secret.

Be armed with stats to back up the following FSBO factoids.

Sellers going at it alone rarely get their asking price. There are several reasons this happens:

  • Many offer buyer incentives that end up costing much more than what an agent would recommend, such as a home warranty policy.
  • Since their home is not listed in an MLS, their pool of potential buyers is much smaller. In addition, they haven't been vetted by an agent who will only present suitable buyers.
  • FSBO sellers are often contacted by would-be buyers who won't qualify for a mortgage, or "looky-loos" with no intention of buying.
  • After a FSBO is on the market for a month or two, potential buyers tend to make smaller offers. Many assume that the home hasn't sold because it's overpriced or has major structural problems.

Here's something you may want to keep a secret: FSBO sellers who switch to an agent often have the worst outcomes with home sale price and incentives. This is usually because their prior attempts to sell were so frustrating that they're now ready to sell at a discount. You may have to work harder to deliver a better price.

If you're negotiating with one or more FSBO sellers, explain how important it is to deal with qualified, credit-worthy buyers — and send them to me so I can assist them with the right mortgage.3

 

*Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com daily rate survey. Learn more here: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/mnd#about This information is provided for Agents and professional use only and is not to be provided to a consumer or to the public. It is for informational purposes and is not a commitment. Rate and price may vary slightly due to occupation status, credit scoring, LTV, and ratios. Interest rates are subject to change. Contact your Mortgage Loan Officer for the most current rates. This is not a commitment to lend. 

Links to Articles: 1. nar.com; 2. theclose.com; 3. listwithclever.com

Monica Atkins
FitzGerald Financial Group
Monica Atkins
Mortgage Loan Officer
LinkedIn
NMLS # 455845
5010 Regency Place Suite 101  
 
White Plains, MD 20695  
 
Office # (240) 335-0178
Cell # (571) 215-6602
Email Me
My Website
EH logo FitzGerald Financial Group NMLS# 512138. The information contained herein (including but not limited to any description of FitzGerald Financial Group, its affiliates and its lending programs and products, eligibility criteria, interest rates, fees and all other loan terms) is subject to change without notice. This is for informational purposes only. This is not a commitment to lend.